इन्वेस्टमेंट बैंकिंग मॉडल काम करने के कई तरीके हैं, लेकिन इन मॉडलों के तहत लिए जाने वाले जोखिमों का अहساس उन लोगों को नहीं होता जो इन्हें ले रहे होते हैं।
There are a lot of ways that investment banking models work, but these risks are not internalized by the people that are taking them.
There are a lot of ways that investment banking models work, but these risks are not internalized by the people that are taking them.
जोखिम प्रबंधक, निवेश बैंकर और वास्तव में हर तरह के निवेशक ने उम्मीद से कहीं ज़्यादा जोखिम उठा लिया। इसलिए यह जोखिम प्रबंधन की विफलता थी। यह पहचानने में चूक हो गई कि लोगों द्वारा खरीदे गए कुछ प्रतिभूतियों (सिक्योरिटीज) में कितना अधिक जोखिम छिपा हुआ है।
Risk managers and investment bankers and actually, all kinds of investors took on more risk than they expected. So there was a failure of risk management. There was a failure to recognize how much risk there was in some of these securities that people bought.
Risk managers and investment bankers and actually, all kinds of investors took on more risk than they expected. So there was a failure of risk management. There was a failure to recognize how much risk there was in some of these securities that people bought.
यानी, कई बार हम अपना पैसा दांव पर नहीं लगा रहे होते, बल्कि किसी और का पैसा जोखिम में डाल रहे होते हैं, या शायद यह सोचकर कि कोई दूसरा नुकसान की भरपाई कर देगा और फायदा तो हमें ही मिलेगा।
That is, many times we're not risking our own money, we're risking somebody else's money, or maybe that someone is going to back stop or downside, but we still get the upside.
That is, many times we're not risking our own money, we're risking somebody else's money, or maybe that someone is going to back stop or downside, but we still get the upside.
मेरी समझ से जोखिम प्रबंधन का कोई दूसरा विकल्प है ही नहीं। अगर इसका मतलब सिर्फ मॉडलों को हटाकर उन समझदार लोगों के भरोसे बैठ जाना है जो खुद सब संभाल लें, तो आप उन्हें कैसे प्रशिक्षित करेंगे? आप उन्हें क्या सिखाएंगे? क्या आप उन्हें सीधे विमान के कॉकपिट में बिठाकर 10 साल तक हाथ-पाँव मारने के लिए छोड़ देंगे और फिर उम्मीद करेंगे कि वे इसमें माहिर हो जाएंगे?
I don't see what the alternative to risk management is. If it's just getting rid of the models and instead using the smart people who can figure it out? How do you train them? What do you teach them? Do you just put them in a cockpit and let them stumble for 10 years of their life and then after that they're good at it?
I don't see what the alternative to risk management is. If it's just getting rid of the models and instead using the smart people who can figure it out? How do you train them? What do you teach them? Do you just put them in a cockpit and let them stumble for 10 years of their life and then after that they're good at it?
खैर, यदि आपके पास किसी कंपनी के बारे में कोई जानकारी है, या आपको लगता है कि किसी कंपनी के शेयर का मूल्यांकन उसकी असली कीमत से कम है, तो आप जाकर उनके शेयर खरीद सकते हैं और उस पर मुनाफा कमा सकता हैं।
Well if you've got information about a company, or you believe that a company is undervalued, you can go out and buy their stock and you can make some profit on it.
Well if you've got information about a company, or you believe that a company is undervalued, you can go out and buy their stock and you can make some profit on it.
मैं तालेब की किताब के कई बिंदुओं से सहमत हूँ, लेकिन उनके कई निष्कर्षों से मेरी सहमति नहीं है। मुझे लगता है कि वे बिल्कुल सही, यह रेखांकित करते हैं कि जोखिम प्रबंधकों से कई जोखिम छूट जाते हैं, लेकिन उनका निष्कर्ष यह होता है कि हमें जोखिम प्रबंधन को ही पूरी तरह छोड़ देना चाहिए, जबकि मेरा निष्कर्ष यह है कि हमें इसमें सुधार करना चाहिए।
I agree with a lot of the points in Taleb's book, but I don't agree with many of his conclusions. It seems to me that he rightly points out that risk managers miss a lot of the risks, but the conclusion is that he draws, is that we should abandon risk management, whereas my conclusion is we should improve it.
I agree with a lot of the points in Taleb's book, but I don't agree with many of his conclusions. It seems to me that he rightly points out that risk managers miss a lot of the risks, but the conclusion is that he draws, is that we should abandon risk management, whereas my conclusion is we should improve it.
कोलैटरलाइज्ड डेट ऑब्लिगेशन यानी सीडीओ एक ऐसा ढांचा है जो आपको प्रतिभूतियों के एक पूरे समूह में अपनी पसंद के मुताबिक लगातार यह तय करने की छूट देता है कि आप कितना जोखिम उठाना चाहते हैं। और ये हमारे लिए इतनी बड़ी मुसीबत इसलिए बन गए क्योंकि यह अनुमान लगाना बहुत मुश्किल होता है कि आप वास्तव में कितना जोखिम उठा रहे हैं।
The collateralized debt obligation, the CDO, is a structure which allows you to more or less continuously choose how much risk you want to take in a whole batch of securities. And the reason why they got us into so much trouble is that it's hard to figure out how much risk you really are taking.
The collateralized debt obligation, the CDO, is a structure which allows you to more or less continuously choose how much risk you want to take in a whole batch of securities. And the reason why they got us into so much trouble is that it's hard to figure out how much risk you really are taking.
हम बात कर रहे हैं कि क्या हमें कर (टैक्स) बढ़ाना चाहिए? इसके बजाय कार्बन उत्सर्जन पर टैक्स क्यों नहीं लगा दिया जाता? इससे बहुत सारा धन जुटाया जा सकता है, भविष्य में पर्यावरण को होने वाले नुकसान को कम किया जा सकता है, कई समस्याओं का समाधान हो सकता है, और यह आय कर (इनकम टैक्स) बढ़ाने के बारे में सोचने से कहीं ज़्यादा बेहतर और रचनात्मक कदम होगा।
We're talking about should we increase taxes? Why not put a tax on carbon emissions. It would raise a lot of money, it would reduce the environmental damages in the future, it would solve so many problems, and it would be a much more constructive thing to do than to think about raising the income tax.
We're talking about should we increase taxes? Why not put a tax on carbon emissions. It would raise a lot of money, it would reduce the environmental damages in the future, it would solve so many problems, and it would be a much more constructive thing to do than to think about raising the income tax.
जब बड़ी कंपनियाँ जोखिम उठाती हैं, तो वे अपनी व्यवस्था का वह जोखिम बाकी पूरी अर्थव्यवस्था पर भी थोप देती हैं। ये प्रणालीगत जोखिम (सिस्टेमिक रिस्क) होते हैं, जिन्हें कभी हम इतना महत्वपूर्ण नहीं मानते थे। लेकिन जैसे ही हमें यह समझ आया कि वित्तीय क्षेत्र द्वारा लिए गए जोखिम पूरी वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था को कैसे प्रभावित कर सकते हैं, हमें यह अहसास हुआ कि सामाजिक हित के लिए इन जोखिमों को नियंत्रित करना बेहद ज़रूरी है।
When large companies take on risk, then they impose risks on the rest of the system. And these are systemic risks and these systemic risks we never used to think were really that important, but as soon as we recognize how the financial sector - the risks the financial sector takes on can impact the entire global economy, we realize that those risks needed to be controlled for the social good.
When large companies take on risk, then they impose risks on the rest of the system. And these are systemic risks and these systemic risks we never used to think were really that important, but as soon as we recognize how the financial sector - the risks the financial sector takes on can impact the entire global economy, we realize that those risks needed to be controlled for the social good.
तो अर्थव्यवस्था में क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप (CDS) की क्या भूमिका हो सकती है? खैर, मेरी भावना यह है कि अगर अब इनका कारोबार एक्सचेंजों या किसी केंद्रीय समाशोधन गृह के ज़रिए होने लगेगा, तो ये अलग-अलग कंपनियों की साख (क्रेडिट वर्थनेस) का आकलन करने का एक बहुत बेहतरीन पैमाना साबित होंगे।
So what is the role that credit default swaps can play in an economy? Well my feeling is that if these things actually will now be traded on either exchanges or some kind of central clearing, they are going to be a very good measure of the credit worthiness of different companies.
So what is the role that credit default swaps can play in an economy? Well my feeling is that if these things actually will now be traded on either exchanges or some kind of central clearing, they are going to be a very good measure of the credit worthiness of different companies.
क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप आपको करने के लिए एक विकल्प देता है। जिन लोगों को आपको पैसे चुकाने हैं, अगर वे दिवालिया हो जाएं, तो खुद को सुरक्षित रखने के लिए आप उनसे कुछ क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप खरीद सकते हैं।
Credit default swap gives you something to do. You can buy some credit default swaps from them to protect yourself against the bankruptcy of people who owe you money.
Credit default swap gives you something to do. You can buy some credit default swaps from them to protect yourself against the bankruptcy of people who owe you money.
मेरा मानना है कि वैश्विक तालमेल (ग्लोबल कोऑर्डिनेशन) बेहद महत्वपूर्ण है। मुझे उम्मीद है कि हम जी20 (G20) के माध्यम से और दुनिया भर के विनियामक तंत्रों के बीच आपसी तालमेल से ऐसा होते हुए देख सकेंगे। अंदाज़ा है कि इस विधेयक की यही मुख्य विशेषताएँ सबसे अहम हैं।
I think global coordination is tremendously important. I hope we can see this happening through the G20 and through coordination of regulatory regimes around the world. I guess those are the main features of this bill that are important.
I think global coordination is tremendously important. I hope we can see this happening through the G20 and through coordination of regulatory regimes around the world. I guess those are the main features of this bill that are important.
यदि बहुत से लोगों को यह महसूस होता है कि किसी कंपनी के शेयर की कीमत उसकी वास्तविक वैल्यू से कम है और वे जाकर उसके शेयर खरीद लेते हैं, तो शेयर की कीमत उस कंपनी के बेहतर मूल्य को दर्शाते हुए ऊपर चढ़ जाएगी। आपके पास यह जानकारी इसलिए हो सकती है क्योंकि आप उनके साथ व्यापार करते हैं या फिर आपने उनके बारे में कुछ शोध किया है।
If a lot of people feel like this company is undervalued and go out and buy the stock, the stock price will go up reflecting the higher value of this company. You might have information because you trade with them or because you've done some research on them.
If a lot of people feel like this company is undervalued and go out and buy the stock, the stock price will go up reflecting the higher value of this company. You might have information because you trade with them or because you've done some research on them.
मुझे लगता है कि हम खुद को धोखे में रख रहे हैं यदि हमें यह लगता है कि विनियामक (रेगुलेटर्स) बैंकरों से ज़्यादा चालाक साबित होंगे। इसलिए, विनियामक सुधार (रेगुलेटरी रिफॉर्म) तैयार करने का असली काम एक ऐसा लगभग फूलप्रूफ (चूक-रहित) नियम बनाना है, और यही 'सिस्टेमिक' श्रेणी के फायदों में से एक है।
I think we're fooling ourselves if we think that regulators are going to be able to outsmart the bankers. So, the task of designing regulatory reform is trying to make more or less foolproof regulation and that's one of the advantages of the systemic category.
I think we're fooling ourselves if we think that regulators are going to be able to outsmart the bankers. So, the task of designing regulatory reform is trying to make more or less foolproof regulation and that's one of the advantages of the systemic category.
मेरा मतलब है, हमारे पास हमेशा से सोने के दीवाने (गोल्ड बग्स) रहे हैं, लेकिन अब हमें कुछ हद तक यह अहसास हो गया है कि ट्रेजरी बिल भी इसी श्रेणी में आ सकते हैं। और हमारे पास क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप जैसे डेरिवेटिव्स भी इसी श्रेणी में आते हैं, इसके अलावा हमारे पास वोलैटिलिटी (अस्थिरता) जैसे डेरिवेटिव्स भी हैं जो असल में एक ऐसा एसेट क्लास हैं जिनमें हम निवेश कर सकते हैं, और यदि कोई और वित्तीय संकट आता है तो ये बेहतर प्रदर्शन करेंगे।
I mean, we've always had gold bugs, but now we sort of realize that Treasure Bills might be in the same category. And we have derivatives like credit default swaps which are in this category, and we have derivatives like volatilities that are actually an asset class that we can invest in which are now - would out perform if we have another financial crisis.
I mean, we've always had gold bugs, but now we sort of realize that Treasure Bills might be in the same category. And we have derivatives like credit default swaps which are in this category, and we have derivatives like volatilities that are actually an asset class that we can invest in which are now - would out perform if we have another financial crisis.
मैं ऊर्जा के मोर्चे पर थोड़ा और ठोस एक्शन देखना चाहता हूँ। मैं पिछले कई सालों से किसी तरह के कार्बन टैक्स की वकालत करता आ रहा हूँ, और मुझे लगता है कि इसे लागू करने के हमारे पास कई मौके रहे हैं।
I'd like to see a little more action on the energy side of things. I've been pushing for some kind of a carbon tax for years, and it seems to me we've had lots of opportunities to do it.
I'd like to see a little more action on the energy side of things. I've been pushing for some kind of a carbon tax for years, and it seems to me we've had lots of opportunities to do it.
मुझे लगता है कि क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप उन रेटिंग एजेंसियों की जगह ले सकता है जो इस प्रक्रिया में पूरी तरह से चूक गई हैं और जिस तरह से उन्हें रेटिंग्स के लिए भुगतान किया जाता है, उसमें हितों का भारी टकराव (कॉन्फ्लिक्ट ऑफ इंटरेस्ट) होता है। इसलिए, मैं चाहूँगा कि अर्थव्यवस्था में क्रेडिट जोखिम को समझने का क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप एक लगातार और भी महत्वपूर्ण जरिया बने।
I think the credit default swaps can take the place of the rating agencies who really have missed the ball in this procedure and are quite conflicted by the way the ratings are paid for. So, I would like to see credit default swaps become an evermore important way of understanding credit risk in the economy.
I think the credit default swaps can take the place of the rating agencies who really have missed the ball in this procedure and are quite conflicted by the way the ratings are paid for. So, I would like to see credit default swaps become an evermore important way of understanding credit risk in the economy.
इन कानूनों में बहुत सारे महत्वाकांक्षी प्रावधान लिखे गए हैं और हमें यह देखना होगा कि क्या यह वास्तव में काम करते हैं, विशेषकर तब जब हमारे सामने किसी बड़े वित्तीय संस्थान के दिवालिया होने का कोई और मामला सामने आए।
A lot of ambitious code has been written into the law for those and we will have to see if it actually works, if we have another example of a big financial institution going bankrupt.
A lot of ambitious code has been written into the law for those and we will have to see if it actually works, if we have another example of a big financial institution going bankrupt.
मुझे नहीं लगता कि यह नियम बनाना कि इन्हें केवल उन्हीं लोगों को बेचा जाए जिनके पास पहले से बॉन्ड मौजूद हैं - दूसरे शब्दों में कहें तो, यह 'नेक्ड पोजीशन' (नग्न स्थिति) जिसे हाल ही में जर्मनी ने अपने वित्तीय नियमों में शामिल किया है और जिस पर यहाँ भी चर्चा हुई है - किसी भी तरह से समझदारी भरा कदम है।
I don't think the idea of requiring these to be only sold to people who have already own the bonds, in other words, this naked position that the Germans have recently put into their financial regulation and has been discussed here. I don't think that makes any sense.
I don't think the idea of requiring these to be only sold to people who have already own the bonds, in other words, this naked position that the Germans have recently put into their financial regulation and has been discussed here. I don't think that makes any sense.
यदि आप इस बात पर ध्यान देते हैं कि आपका जोखिम कहाँ-कहाँ फंसा है, तो हो सकता है कि आप उन तमाम लोगों और कंपनियों के खिलाफ क्रेडिट डिफॉल्ट स्वैप खरीदना शुरू कर दें जिनके साथ आप कारोबार करते हैं।
If you pay attention to where your exposures are, you might tend up buying credit default swaps against a variety of people that you - companies that you deal with.
If you pay attention to where your exposures are, you might tend up buying credit default swaps against a variety of people that you - companies that you deal with.
मुझे लगता है कि हमें इस बात की बेहतर समझ की आवश्यकता है कि किसी सीडीओ (CDO) का जोखिम विश्लेषण कैसे किया जाए, लेकिन फिर भी वे एक बहुत ही मूल्यवान भूमिका निभा सकते हैं। वे इन जोखिमों को एक जगह इकठ्ठा (एग्रीगेट) करके आगे बढ़ा सकते हैं ताकि mortgages या अन्य प्रकार के ऋणों को पैक करके दुनिया भर के निवेशकों को बेचा जा सके, जो सामान्य परिस्थितियों में इनमें से थोड़े-थोड़े जोखिम को आसानी से संभाल सकते हैं।
I think what we need is better understanding of how to do risk analysis of a CDO, but that they still can perform a very valuable function because they can aggregate these risks and pass them around so that mortgages or other kinds of loans can be packaged and sold to investors all over the world, who in most times, would justify a small amount of each one.
I think what we need is better understanding of how to do risk analysis of a CDO, but that they still can perform a very valuable function because they can aggregate these risks and pass them around so that mortgages or other kinds of loans can be packaged and sold to investors all over the world, who in most times, would justify a small amount of each one.
मुझे लगता है कि यह एक ऐसी बात है जिसकी चिंता इन्वेस्टमेंट बैंक लंबे समय से करते आए हैं और आगे भी करते रहेंगे, लेकिन जब आपके पास कंपनी के पैसे पर दांव लगाने वाले बहुत सारे लोग हों, तो इसका कोई आसान समाधान नहीं है कि उन जोखिमों को वास्तव में कैसे बांटा जाए? आप यह कैसे सुनिश्चित करें कि जोखिम उठाने वाले लोग वास्तव में उस जोखिम को सही मायनों में महसूस कर सकें?
I think that's something that investment banks have worried about for a long time and are continuing to worry about, but it's not an easy solution when you have lots of people betting the company's money, how do you really allocate those risks? How do you make sure that the people that take the risks are feeling the risks in an appropriate kind of fashion?
I think that's something that investment banks have worried about for a long time and are continuing to worry about, but it's not an easy solution when you have lots of people betting the company's money, how do you really allocate those risks? How do you make sure that the people that take the risks are feeling the risks in an appropriate kind of fashion?
शॉर्ट सेलिंग की अनुमति देने का मतलब है कि लोगों को यह छूट देना कि - इसके बजाय कि वे पहले शेयर खरीदें और फिर उसे बेचें (जिससे ज़्यादा कुछ हासिल नहीं होता) - वे पहले शेयर बेच दें और फिर उसे खरीदें। इस स्थिति में वे अपनी जानकारी को बाजार में उतार सकते हैं। इसका उद्देश्य यह होता है कि लोग 'लॉन्ग' या 'शॉर्ट' सेलिंग के ज़रिए अपनी सकारात्मक (पॉजिटिव) और नकारात्मक (नेगेटिव) दोनों जानकारियों को साझा कर सकें, जिससे कंपनियों का अधिक सटीक मूल्यांकन मिल सके।
Allowing short selling is allowing people to sell - instead of having to buy the stock and then sell it, which doesn't do much; allow them to sell it, and then buy it. In which case they can express that information and the idea is that you would get more accurate valuation of companies by letting people express both their positive information and their negative information through either long or short selling.
Allowing short selling is allowing people to sell - instead of having to buy the stock and then sell it, which doesn't do much; allow them to sell it, and then buy it. In which case they can express that information and the idea is that you would get more accurate valuation of companies by letting people express both their positive information and their negative information through either long or short selling.
यदि आपके पास यह जानकारी है कि कोई कंपनी उतनी अच्छी नहीं है जितना कि शेयर बाजार में उसका मूल्यांकन किया जा रहा है, तो जब तक आपके पास वह शेयर पहले से न हो, आपके पास उसे बेचने का कोई तरीका नहीं होता। और यदि आप शॉर्ट सेलिंग की अनुमति नहीं देते हैं, तो यह जानकारी कंपनी के शेयर की कीमत में उतनी तेजी से शामिल नहीं हो पाती।
If you have information that a company is not as good as its stock market valuation, you don't have a way to sell that stock unless you already own it. And so that information doesn't get incorporated in the company's stock price as fast if you don't allow short selling.
If you have information that a company is not as good as its stock market valuation, you don't have a way to sell that stock unless you already own it. And so that information doesn't get incorporated in the company's stock price as fast if you don't allow short selling.
आप जानते ही हैं, जिन पोर्टफोलियो को खरीदने पर हम विचार कर सकते हैं, उनमें से कुछ ऐसे पोर्टफोलियो भी हो सकते हैं जो तब विशेष रूप से अच्छा प्रदर्शन करेंगे जब अर्थव्यवस्था-व्यापी या मेरा मतलब है, वैश्विक जलवायु परिवर्तन का हम पर बहुत नकारात्मक प्रभाव पड़े। कुछ कंपनियाँ ऐसी हैं जो ऐसे हालातों में भी अच्छा प्रदर्शन करेंगी, इसलिए अपने पोर्टफोलियो में ऐसी कुछ कंपनियों को रखना समझदारी हो सकता है।
You know, some of the portfolios we might consider buying are portfolios which would do especially well if we have an economy-wide, or I mean, a global climate change that impacts us very negatively there are some companies that will do well, and so it might make sense to hold some of those in your portfolio.
You know, some of the portfolios we might consider buying are portfolios which would do especially well if we have an economy-wide, or I mean, a global climate change that impacts us very negatively there are some companies that will do well, and so it might make sense to hold some of those in your portfolio.